The global economy is on an 'irreversible path' to a downturn. The credit cycle is heading toward a plateau and then a downturn,

The global economy is on an ‘irreversible path’ to a downturn


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The global economy is on an ‘irreversible path’ to a downturn. The credit cycle is heading toward a plateau and then a downturn, according to Naka Matsuzawa, chief Japan rates strategist at Nomura.

  • In the life of a decade-long credit cycle, the global economy’s current condition shows it’s firmly heading toward a downturn, according to a new analysis from Nomura.
  • A single cycle is historically a decade long. The beginning is marked by the end of a crisis/a cyclical bottom, and ends when credit contracts and the economy enters into a recession.
  • The global economy today is within what Nomura calls the “credit expansion/last stage,” heading toward a plateau and then a downturn.

Matsuzawa’s view is more or less consistent with other experts. Some market strategists and business leaders are not calling for an immediate recession, but think that sometime in 2020 the risks will rise. A recent report from Deutsche Bank placed the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months as “very low.” Still, economists are keeping an eye on the flattening Treasury yield curve, wherein an inversion traditionally indicates a recession on the horizon — with a mixed track record of reliability.

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